Monday, January 13, 2014

Poker Bluff Overkill

If you are playing on line or in live Casino games, chances are, you run up against three kinds of players:
1)  Donkeys (really bad players)
2) Intermediates (average guys and girls, who know a little, but most likely never read a poker book)
3) Skilled players.

We are going to make an assumption about your game, and say that you fall into the middle area. I know you think you play better than average, but the fact that you "don't know what you don't know," is why professionals can make a living off of average players.

You think you know what to do in a loose game,  when you flop a set into a coordinated board; but you don't know. Because if you have an answer to this puzzle, you don't know enough to realize that it all depends on many other factors. So given that you got that pop quiz wrong, lets assume you are average.

Because you are reading this, you have a desire to work on your game, and may have read a book or two. So you know a few tricks. You have a basic understanding of when to bet, when to bluff, and maybe when to slow-play a big hand.But what your game might be missing is, when you should make the big moves and against who should you make them.

You as an Intermediate player, might be able to get off of (fold) Ace/Ace, when there is a three flush on board after the turn. And a Skilled player, might have already gotten off the hand or he has bet enough that the other players never got to see the turn. But the Donkeys are not going to fold this hand, even if you put a gun in their mouths and told them to muck their cards.

So even though this (three flush on the turn board), might be a good board to bluff at, when you have nothing at all, in a two or three way hand, your bluff here is going to be useless verses the bad player.. Donkeys do not fold big pairs. So why are you betting into a player who is not smart enough to know he should fold?

The worse your opponents are, the more often you will need a "real" hand to take down the pot. Save your advanced moves for your advanced competition. Save your big "all-in" bluffs, for the top players. They are more likely to fold. (Assuming they do not read your bet as a bluff.)

An example hand would be, an unpaired board, with a three flush (spades) on the river. You are sure your opponent made a flush, but you hold the Ace of spades. Note that he DOES NOT have the nuts, and since you played this hand to the river, you could very well have a flush. But all you have is
pair, or maybe nothing but Ace-High. We will also assume that you have a tight aggressive image at the table.

Against a top player, you could push here and win the pot. He knows that you could have been on a draw, and that you could have a better flush then he does. Therefore, he is most likely going to fold this hand even if he has a set. (Three of a kind.) This is also assuming that your bet is large enough relative to the size of the pot. The Donkey is going to call, because he has a flush, and is not smart enough to fall for your lie. Its like lying to your wife in Chinese. How is she going to buy it if she cant understand what you are saying. The Donkey does not understand that you are saying, "I have a flush you stupid-ass, so fold!"

The bottom line is: Don't play (bluff) over the head of the person you are trying to trick. And don't tell your wife lies in Chinese, unless she speaks Chinese.

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